雖然是昨天清晨TCFA，但在最近幾報的數值模式顯示後期進入西太是有可能性 但目前他還是會西行進入中太平洋，一樣從夏威夷群島南方溜走 -- WTPN22 PHNC 121930 MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT// RMKS/ 1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN 160 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 11.5N 140.7W TO 9.3N 133.2W WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME. WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 18 TO 23 KNOTS. METSAT IMAGERY AT 121200Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED NEAR 9.3N 133.5W. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 10 KNOTS. https://i.imgur.com/Odnvh5X.png -- GFS 06Z 系集 https://i.imgur.com/d6PetvH.png EC 06C 系集 https://i.imgur.com/MZJ5g3C.png CIRA 模式路徑預測誤差概率 https://i.imgur.com/Y3OSufF.png -- ※ 發信站: 批踢踢實業坊(ptt.cc), 來自: 36.228.92.20 (臺灣) ※ 文章網址: https://www.ptt.cc/bbs/TY_Research/M.1691943062.A.EDC.html